The Sarah Palin Phenomenon Part 4

This is my final post for the time being on Sarah Palin. In the last post I gave my reasons why she should probably not be elected president. In this post, I will give my reasons why I think she has no chance of getting elected president.

1. Unless the economy never turns around, Barack Obama will be re-elected over any Republican candidate. This is the Bill Clinton philosophy: It's the economy, stupid. If the economy turns around in any appreciable way by early 2012, then Obama is a shoo-in. I don't care how fervently the religious right works against him, mainstream voters will vote him back in if they feel their pocketbooks are safe. You don't have to like this, but it's true.

There were a lot of reasons that Ronald Reagan beat Jimmy Carter in 1980, but this is a big one: 21% annualized rate of inflation for the first 3 months of 1980. George H. W. Bush was likewise a single-term president because voters perceived the economy as weak (ironically, it had been turning around in the several months prior to the election, but people catch on slowly).

Obama will not get voted out because he doesn't end the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan soon enough. Liberals will be unhappy if troops are still in those countries in 2012, but they won't abandon him. neither will he lose his job over health-care reform. The only thing that could sink him is the economy. Given its cyclical nature, I have trouble believing that it will not be significantly better two years from now.

2. She sounds too conservative for the average voter. Her followers love her positions, but these are not the positions of the majority of voters in this country. Reagan had a way of communicating extremely conservative positions that resonated at a particular time. George W. Bush sounded less conservative than he was. With Palin, anyone who listens at all knows this is a conservative in the Bill O'Reilly/Rush Limbaugh/Alan Keyes mold. And the majority of voters think these guys are nuts. You would be mistaken for confusing the intensity of her followers with numbers of followers.

One of the reasons that John McCain picked her was a belief that she could help him with the so-called "soccer moms." That was a good strategy until she started expressing her extreme conservatism. "Soccer moms" are not raving liberals, but as a whole they are not evangelical Christians either. Unless Palin can find a way to expand her base, her candidacy will be doomed to a landslide defeat.

3. She has little support among the Republican party machinery. If you think this is unimportant, you are not paying attention. John McCain was not the favorite of most of the party bigwigs, but he had built enough support among them in his years in the Senate. Most of the party leaders seem to have taken a wait-and-see attitude with Palin. Although, with her leaving office so soon before 2012, it is hard to see how she is going to use her power of being an elected official to gain support with that group.

I think this makes it hard to see her even get the nomination. She will have some early strong showings in the primaries and will possibly be a force with which to be reckoned, but I seriously doubt that she could gain enough delegate votes.

If she did somehow get nominated, I could see the party leaders give her only token support while they concentrated their efforts on trying to gain or defend congressional seats. This will help her be on the wrong side of the landslide.

4. The fatigue factor. There is a danger in peaking too early. People get tired of you and of hearing about you. Obama was so over-hyped that he suffered a little bit for it in late-summer and early-fall. She is running the risk of being very old news come 2012, and some of the freshness that made her initially appealing will be gone. Will she have enough substance to overcome that? I doubt it.

To sum up, I have very serious doubts that Sarah Palin could come close to gaining the Republican nomination for president in 2012. If I am wrong, I still fail to see her gaining enough votes outside of her present constituency to capture the presidency.