This is my final post for the time being on Sarah Palin. In the last post I gave my reasons why she should probably not be elected president. In this post, I will give my reasons why I think she has no chance of getting elected president.
1. Unless the economy never turns around, Barack Obama will be re-elected over any Republican candidate. This is the Bill Clinton philosophy: It's the economy, stupid. If the economy turns around in any appreciable way by early 2012, then Obama is a shoo-in. I don't care how fervently the religious right works against him, mainstream voters will vote him back in if they feel their pocketbooks are safe. You don't have to like this, but it's true.
There were a lot of reasons that Ronald Reagan beat Jimmy Carter in 1980, but this is a big one: 21% annualized rate of inflation for the first 3 months of 1980. George H. W. Bush was likewise a single-term president because voters perceived the economy as weak (ironically, it had been turning around in the several months prior to the election, but people catch on slowly).
Obama will not get voted out because he doesn't end the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan soon enough. Liberals will be unhappy if troops are still in those countries in 2012, but they won't abandon him. neither will he lose his job over health-care reform. The only thing that could sink him is the economy. Given its cyclical nature, I have trouble believing that it will not be significantly better two years from now.
2. She sounds too conservative for the average voter. Her followers love her positions, but these are not the positions of the majority of voters in this country. Reagan had a way of communicating extremely conservative positions that resonated at a particular time. George W. Bush sounded less conservative than he was. With Palin, anyone who listens at all knows this is a conservative in the Bill O'Reilly/Rush Limbaugh/Alan Keyes mold. And the majority of voters think these guys are nuts. You would be mistaken for confusing the intensity of her followers with numbers of followers.
One of the reasons that John McCain picked her was a belief that she could help him with the so-called "soccer moms." That was a good strategy until she started expressing her extreme conservatism. "Soccer moms" are not raving liberals, but as a whole they are not evangelical Christians either. Unless Palin can find a way to expand her base, her candidacy will be doomed to a landslide defeat.
3. She has little support among the Republican party machinery. If you think this is unimportant, you are not paying attention. John McCain was not the favorite of most of the party bigwigs, but he had built enough support among them in his years in the Senate. Most of the party leaders seem to have taken a wait-and-see attitude with Palin. Although, with her leaving office so soon before 2012, it is hard to see how she is going to use her power of being an elected official to gain support with that group.
I think this makes it hard to see her even get the nomination. She will have some early strong showings in the primaries and will possibly be a force with which to be reckoned, but I seriously doubt that she could gain enough delegate votes.
If she did somehow get nominated, I could see the party leaders give her only token support while they concentrated their efforts on trying to gain or defend congressional seats. This will help her be on the wrong side of the landslide.
4. The fatigue factor. There is a danger in peaking too early. People get tired of you and of hearing about you. Obama was so over-hyped that he suffered a little bit for it in late-summer and early-fall. She is running the risk of being very old news come 2012, and some of the freshness that made her initially appealing will be gone. Will she have enough substance to overcome that? I doubt it.
To sum up, I have very serious doubts that Sarah Palin could come close to gaining the Republican nomination for president in 2012. If I am wrong, I still fail to see her gaining enough votes outside of her present constituency to capture the presidency.
Showing posts with label Sarah Palin. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sarah Palin. Show all posts
Friday, December 18, 2009
Monday, December 14, 2009
The Sarah Palin Phenomenon Part 3
Before I get to the subject about Sarah Palin's presidential chances, I wanted to first discuss whether I think she is qualified to be president. Simply put, I do not think she is. Here are my reasons why.
1. Her standard-issue conservatism. I am more politically conservative that the average voter, but less so than most of my Christian friends. The fact that she is extremely conservative does not disqualify her (though i may not support her positions). What disqualifies her in my mind is that I cannot distinguish that she is thinking at all. She knows how to repeat the standard conservative mantras, but without any depth. I want a president who shows the ability to think and be a little creative.
2. Her lack of political experience. Two years of governor of Alaska and a couple of terms as a small-town mayor is hardly an impressive resume. You don't have to like it, but a successful president needs to be able to work with other elected officials and the bureaucracy. Her tendency to fire people who disagree with her and her resignation in protest from the Alaska Oil and Gas Commission may indicate that she "does not play well with others." While some may view this as a good trait, I see the potential for government gridlock.
3. Her lack of leadership. Where are Palin's followers? I don't mean the people who eagerly line up to buy her book. I mean the people who have given themselves to a life of government service. As diverse individuals as Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton had loyal government-types who believed in his vision. I don't see that for Palin.
In short, Sarah Palin, despite her enthusiastic following among a relatively small percentage of the population, has not exhibited the traits that I think make her a good choice for the top office in this country.
When I next speak about Sarah Palin, I will finally list my reasons why she will not be elected.
1. Her standard-issue conservatism. I am more politically conservative that the average voter, but less so than most of my Christian friends. The fact that she is extremely conservative does not disqualify her (though i may not support her positions). What disqualifies her in my mind is that I cannot distinguish that she is thinking at all. She knows how to repeat the standard conservative mantras, but without any depth. I want a president who shows the ability to think and be a little creative.
2. Her lack of political experience. Two years of governor of Alaska and a couple of terms as a small-town mayor is hardly an impressive resume. You don't have to like it, but a successful president needs to be able to work with other elected officials and the bureaucracy. Her tendency to fire people who disagree with her and her resignation in protest from the Alaska Oil and Gas Commission may indicate that she "does not play well with others." While some may view this as a good trait, I see the potential for government gridlock.
3. Her lack of leadership. Where are Palin's followers? I don't mean the people who eagerly line up to buy her book. I mean the people who have given themselves to a life of government service. As diverse individuals as Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton had loyal government-types who believed in his vision. I don't see that for Palin.
In short, Sarah Palin, despite her enthusiastic following among a relatively small percentage of the population, has not exhibited the traits that I think make her a good choice for the top office in this country.
When I next speak about Sarah Palin, I will finally list my reasons why she will not be elected.
Friday, December 4, 2009
The Sarah Palin Phenomenon Part 2
The acceptance by the religious right to Sarah Palin is not a surprise. What is a bit surprising is the reaction of the left, especially the left-leaning news media. In short, they seem scared of her.
I really do not view her as a threat in 2012 (a post for another day), but perhaps they know more than I do. When reporting every campaign stop (=book-signing), there is always some talking head taking a shot at her record or family life or her lack of acceptance by mainstream Republicans. This is the treatment given to someone you fear.
In an incredible irony, the news media is actually giving more attention and credibility to Palin by attacking her. Her book tour is not particularly newsworthy. They could have ignored it or at least given it subdued coverage. But by taking shots at her, they just keep putting her smiling face on the TV screen again and again. It seems counterproductive to me.
Democratic party mailings have gone out with warnings about Sarah Palin in an attempt to raise money. They are trying to energize the left by trading on their fears of a Palin presidency. It reminds me of what the Republicans did with Hilary Clinton in 2006-7. She was the bogey of the right. Palin has become the bogey of the left.
Can she win? Should she win? Next time.
I really do not view her as a threat in 2012 (a post for another day), but perhaps they know more than I do. When reporting every campaign stop (=book-signing), there is always some talking head taking a shot at her record or family life or her lack of acceptance by mainstream Republicans. This is the treatment given to someone you fear.
In an incredible irony, the news media is actually giving more attention and credibility to Palin by attacking her. Her book tour is not particularly newsworthy. They could have ignored it or at least given it subdued coverage. But by taking shots at her, they just keep putting her smiling face on the TV screen again and again. It seems counterproductive to me.
Democratic party mailings have gone out with warnings about Sarah Palin in an attempt to raise money. They are trying to energize the left by trading on their fears of a Palin presidency. It reminds me of what the Republicans did with Hilary Clinton in 2006-7. She was the bogey of the right. Palin has become the bogey of the left.
Can she win? Should she win? Next time.
Friday, November 27, 2009
The Sarah Palin Phenomenon
I am intrigued at the buzz surrounding Sarah Palin. A previously-unknown governor of a small state was elevated to VP candidate and suddenly she is the new darling of the right (especially the religious right). Why the attraction?
First, we cannot put aside the fact that she is pretty. I'm not being sexist here. Taller, more attractive men have always had some advantages in running for president. Though they will never admit it, people want to like what they see when they cast their vote. I can't help but believe that if Palin looked like, oh say, Rosie O'Donnell, her support might be a little less.
Second, she is simply well-known from her VP run. I believe that it would not take me long to round up two dozen Republicans who have more and better political experience and who support the same positions that she does. But they are only known locally and she has been in the national spotlight. This gives her a significant advantage.
Third, she is a conservative woman. When most of the women in politics range from center to the extreme left, this uniqueness attracts interest. I believe this was a major factor in John McCain's selection of her.
Fourth, she espouses all the "right" positions that energize conservatives. There is no ambiguity as to whether she is conservative enough.
Fifth, she belongs to the evangelical wing of Christianity. For those in the religious right, she is the proper kind of Christian. No more having to wonder if they should support Mitt Romney--a man with the "right" positions, but a Mormon.
Will this translate into the presidency or even the nomination for that office? I doubt it, which will be the focus of a later post. But she will not go away quietly and her supporters will have to be contended with.
First, we cannot put aside the fact that she is pretty. I'm not being sexist here. Taller, more attractive men have always had some advantages in running for president. Though they will never admit it, people want to like what they see when they cast their vote. I can't help but believe that if Palin looked like, oh say, Rosie O'Donnell, her support might be a little less.
Second, she is simply well-known from her VP run. I believe that it would not take me long to round up two dozen Republicans who have more and better political experience and who support the same positions that she does. But they are only known locally and she has been in the national spotlight. This gives her a significant advantage.
Third, she is a conservative woman. When most of the women in politics range from center to the extreme left, this uniqueness attracts interest. I believe this was a major factor in John McCain's selection of her.
Fourth, she espouses all the "right" positions that energize conservatives. There is no ambiguity as to whether she is conservative enough.
Fifth, she belongs to the evangelical wing of Christianity. For those in the religious right, she is the proper kind of Christian. No more having to wonder if they should support Mitt Romney--a man with the "right" positions, but a Mormon.
Will this translate into the presidency or even the nomination for that office? I doubt it, which will be the focus of a later post. But she will not go away quietly and her supporters will have to be contended with.
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