This is my final post for the time being on Sarah Palin. In the last post I gave my reasons why she should probably not be elected president. In this post, I will give my reasons why I think she has no chance of getting elected president.
1. Unless the economy never turns around, Barack Obama will be re-elected over any Republican candidate. This is the Bill Clinton philosophy: It's the economy, stupid. If the economy turns around in any appreciable way by early 2012, then Obama is a shoo-in. I don't care how fervently the religious right works against him, mainstream voters will vote him back in if they feel their pocketbooks are safe. You don't have to like this, but it's true.
There were a lot of reasons that Ronald Reagan beat Jimmy Carter in 1980, but this is a big one: 21% annualized rate of inflation for the first 3 months of 1980. George H. W. Bush was likewise a single-term president because voters perceived the economy as weak (ironically, it had been turning around in the several months prior to the election, but people catch on slowly).
Obama will not get voted out because he doesn't end the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan soon enough. Liberals will be unhappy if troops are still in those countries in 2012, but they won't abandon him. neither will he lose his job over health-care reform. The only thing that could sink him is the economy. Given its cyclical nature, I have trouble believing that it will not be significantly better two years from now.
2. She sounds too conservative for the average voter. Her followers love her positions, but these are not the positions of the majority of voters in this country. Reagan had a way of communicating extremely conservative positions that resonated at a particular time. George W. Bush sounded less conservative than he was. With Palin, anyone who listens at all knows this is a conservative in the Bill O'Reilly/Rush Limbaugh/Alan Keyes mold. And the majority of voters think these guys are nuts. You would be mistaken for confusing the intensity of her followers with numbers of followers.
One of the reasons that John McCain picked her was a belief that she could help him with the so-called "soccer moms." That was a good strategy until she started expressing her extreme conservatism. "Soccer moms" are not raving liberals, but as a whole they are not evangelical Christians either. Unless Palin can find a way to expand her base, her candidacy will be doomed to a landslide defeat.
3. She has little support among the Republican party machinery. If you think this is unimportant, you are not paying attention. John McCain was not the favorite of most of the party bigwigs, but he had built enough support among them in his years in the Senate. Most of the party leaders seem to have taken a wait-and-see attitude with Palin. Although, with her leaving office so soon before 2012, it is hard to see how she is going to use her power of being an elected official to gain support with that group.
I think this makes it hard to see her even get the nomination. She will have some early strong showings in the primaries and will possibly be a force with which to be reckoned, but I seriously doubt that she could gain enough delegate votes.
If she did somehow get nominated, I could see the party leaders give her only token support while they concentrated their efforts on trying to gain or defend congressional seats. This will help her be on the wrong side of the landslide.
4. The fatigue factor. There is a danger in peaking too early. People get tired of you and of hearing about you. Obama was so over-hyped that he suffered a little bit for it in late-summer and early-fall. She is running the risk of being very old news come 2012, and some of the freshness that made her initially appealing will be gone. Will she have enough substance to overcome that? I doubt it.
To sum up, I have very serious doubts that Sarah Palin could come close to gaining the Republican nomination for president in 2012. If I am wrong, I still fail to see her gaining enough votes outside of her present constituency to capture the presidency.
Friday, December 18, 2009
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Too Soon
I received news that someone I knew died in a car accident. Her name was Summer and seh was (I think) only 29 years old.
I didn't know Summer well. She sang on a worship team that I belonged to for two years. She was still in college. She had impossibly long blonde hair and was quite pretty. She had a lot of personality and--though she was very smart--played a bit of the dumb blonde routine at times.
After I made contact with some old friends from Springfield, I noticed that she was on some of their friends lists. I did not add her as a friend, though. I am not in the habit of adding young, pretty girls whom I don't know well. Summer, however, must have seen my name pop up on one of the lists of our mutual friends and added me. I was touched at her desire to touch base with so many people.
When Tina was at Fashion Bug, it was her job to recruit women for a fashion show. The participants got discounts on clothes. Summer helped her every time. She would wear several outfits and go out as many times as they wanted her to. She had fun and made it fun for Tina.
It's not fair. When I say that, I don't mean to criticize God. We have no claim on this life. But in the randomness of this sin-infested world, a young girl who was teaching school dies before she can raise a family of her own, while many, many others who do so much less keep on living. Though I know God redeems death and turns it into eternal life, I can still be sad that she is not around and be angry at this world.
I know she rests in the arms of Jesus and is better off for not being here. God is good and will bring comfort to me and to those who knew her so much better.
I didn't know Summer well. She sang on a worship team that I belonged to for two years. She was still in college. She had impossibly long blonde hair and was quite pretty. She had a lot of personality and--though she was very smart--played a bit of the dumb blonde routine at times.
After I made contact with some old friends from Springfield, I noticed that she was on some of their friends lists. I did not add her as a friend, though. I am not in the habit of adding young, pretty girls whom I don't know well. Summer, however, must have seen my name pop up on one of the lists of our mutual friends and added me. I was touched at her desire to touch base with so many people.
When Tina was at Fashion Bug, it was her job to recruit women for a fashion show. The participants got discounts on clothes. Summer helped her every time. She would wear several outfits and go out as many times as they wanted her to. She had fun and made it fun for Tina.
It's not fair. When I say that, I don't mean to criticize God. We have no claim on this life. But in the randomness of this sin-infested world, a young girl who was teaching school dies before she can raise a family of her own, while many, many others who do so much less keep on living. Though I know God redeems death and turns it into eternal life, I can still be sad that she is not around and be angry at this world.
I know she rests in the arms of Jesus and is better off for not being here. God is good and will bring comfort to me and to those who knew her so much better.
Monday, December 14, 2009
The Sarah Palin Phenomenon Part 3
Before I get to the subject about Sarah Palin's presidential chances, I wanted to first discuss whether I think she is qualified to be president. Simply put, I do not think she is. Here are my reasons why.
1. Her standard-issue conservatism. I am more politically conservative that the average voter, but less so than most of my Christian friends. The fact that she is extremely conservative does not disqualify her (though i may not support her positions). What disqualifies her in my mind is that I cannot distinguish that she is thinking at all. She knows how to repeat the standard conservative mantras, but without any depth. I want a president who shows the ability to think and be a little creative.
2. Her lack of political experience. Two years of governor of Alaska and a couple of terms as a small-town mayor is hardly an impressive resume. You don't have to like it, but a successful president needs to be able to work with other elected officials and the bureaucracy. Her tendency to fire people who disagree with her and her resignation in protest from the Alaska Oil and Gas Commission may indicate that she "does not play well with others." While some may view this as a good trait, I see the potential for government gridlock.
3. Her lack of leadership. Where are Palin's followers? I don't mean the people who eagerly line up to buy her book. I mean the people who have given themselves to a life of government service. As diverse individuals as Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton had loyal government-types who believed in his vision. I don't see that for Palin.
In short, Sarah Palin, despite her enthusiastic following among a relatively small percentage of the population, has not exhibited the traits that I think make her a good choice for the top office in this country.
When I next speak about Sarah Palin, I will finally list my reasons why she will not be elected.
1. Her standard-issue conservatism. I am more politically conservative that the average voter, but less so than most of my Christian friends. The fact that she is extremely conservative does not disqualify her (though i may not support her positions). What disqualifies her in my mind is that I cannot distinguish that she is thinking at all. She knows how to repeat the standard conservative mantras, but without any depth. I want a president who shows the ability to think and be a little creative.
2. Her lack of political experience. Two years of governor of Alaska and a couple of terms as a small-town mayor is hardly an impressive resume. You don't have to like it, but a successful president needs to be able to work with other elected officials and the bureaucracy. Her tendency to fire people who disagree with her and her resignation in protest from the Alaska Oil and Gas Commission may indicate that she "does not play well with others." While some may view this as a good trait, I see the potential for government gridlock.
3. Her lack of leadership. Where are Palin's followers? I don't mean the people who eagerly line up to buy her book. I mean the people who have given themselves to a life of government service. As diverse individuals as Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton had loyal government-types who believed in his vision. I don't see that for Palin.
In short, Sarah Palin, despite her enthusiastic following among a relatively small percentage of the population, has not exhibited the traits that I think make her a good choice for the top office in this country.
When I next speak about Sarah Palin, I will finally list my reasons why she will not be elected.
Friday, December 11, 2009
My Love-Hate Relationship with Christmas Music
From childhood, I have always loved Christmas music. I looked forward to singing those songs in school and church, enjoyed playing them at home, and loved playing Christmas records at home. Over the years, however, certain types of Christmas music have really turned me off. So while I still love Christmas songs, there is quite a bit of it that I detest.
This is not the religious vs. secular debate. I tolerate songs about snow and Santa. Conversely, there are religious songs (or particular performances of those songs) that I hate. Actually, my split-personality over Christmas music reflects my taste in music generally: Give me authentic performances of good songs over schmaltzy or overblown music any day.
Here is what I hate about bad Christmas music: 1. Sleigh bells. 2. Bombastic arrangements of simple songs. 3. Overly-sentimental productions. Here is what I like: 1. Good solid lyrics and melodies. 2. Arrangements that let the song shine through rather than showcase the performers. 3. Performances that well match the song.
For example, yesterday in the mall, I heard a slow, lush, overproduced version of Up on the Housetop. It served as a wonderful showcase for the singer's voice, but completely missed the lighthearted mood of the song. It made me wonder if the singer spoke English. If she did, she wasn't paying attention to the words.
My all-time favorite Christmas album is by Bruce Cockburn. This 1993 release--simply title Christmas--contains 15 songs. All are religious. Some are familiar (God Rest Ye Merry Gentlemen), others very obscure (Early on One Christmas Morn), and a couple of surprises (Angels We Have Heard on High in its original French version). In the liner notes, he states his goal was to capture the "songness" of each piece. And he does this in a masterful way.
If you, too, are tired of artificial music, try to find a copy of this album. You will again remember why you originally liked Christmas music.
This is not the religious vs. secular debate. I tolerate songs about snow and Santa. Conversely, there are religious songs (or particular performances of those songs) that I hate. Actually, my split-personality over Christmas music reflects my taste in music generally: Give me authentic performances of good songs over schmaltzy or overblown music any day.
Here is what I hate about bad Christmas music: 1. Sleigh bells. 2. Bombastic arrangements of simple songs. 3. Overly-sentimental productions. Here is what I like: 1. Good solid lyrics and melodies. 2. Arrangements that let the song shine through rather than showcase the performers. 3. Performances that well match the song.
For example, yesterday in the mall, I heard a slow, lush, overproduced version of Up on the Housetop. It served as a wonderful showcase for the singer's voice, but completely missed the lighthearted mood of the song. It made me wonder if the singer spoke English. If she did, she wasn't paying attention to the words.
My all-time favorite Christmas album is by Bruce Cockburn. This 1993 release--simply title Christmas--contains 15 songs. All are religious. Some are familiar (God Rest Ye Merry Gentlemen), others very obscure (Early on One Christmas Morn), and a couple of surprises (Angels We Have Heard on High in its original French version). In the liner notes, he states his goal was to capture the "songness" of each piece. And he does this in a masterful way.
If you, too, are tired of artificial music, try to find a copy of this album. You will again remember why you originally liked Christmas music.
Thursday, December 10, 2009
No One Said Tigers Were Smart
For the most part I don't care about Tiger Woods' sexual escapades. I feel bad for his wife and kids, but I never idolized the man. He is the greatest golfer I have ever watched play, but that's it.
I'm not particularly surprised that he has been unfaithful to his wife. Nothing that he has ever said or done has led me to believe that he had a particularly strong moral compass. He has a bad temper, cusses like a sailor, is overly competitive, and only seems interested in his own interests. It is about performance, not character.
I'm sure that some of the women who have claimed to slept with him are just seeking attention and could be lying. However, the count is up to at least 13. They're not all making it up. There is strong evidence that he had more than one long-term sexual relationship, many one-night-stands, and possibly encounters with prostitutes.
What interests me the most about Tiger is this: How did he think he would ever get away with this? I suppose there are people in his position who have managed to have some groupie sex on the road without their wife finding out. Perhaps it is even possible to have one mistress on the side if she is discreet. But Tiger threw all caution to the wind. In the day of TMZ and skanks looking to get on television, he should have known that this indiscriminate sleeping around was going to get out.
I can't decide if he was stupid or arrogant. Either way, Tiger is living proof of Jesus' warning: There is nothing concealed that will not be disclosed, or hidden that will not be made known. What you have said in the dark will be heard in the daylight, and what you have whispered in the ear in the inner rooms will be proclaimed from the roofs. (Luke 12:2-3)
I'm not particularly surprised that he has been unfaithful to his wife. Nothing that he has ever said or done has led me to believe that he had a particularly strong moral compass. He has a bad temper, cusses like a sailor, is overly competitive, and only seems interested in his own interests. It is about performance, not character.
I'm sure that some of the women who have claimed to slept with him are just seeking attention and could be lying. However, the count is up to at least 13. They're not all making it up. There is strong evidence that he had more than one long-term sexual relationship, many one-night-stands, and possibly encounters with prostitutes.
What interests me the most about Tiger is this: How did he think he would ever get away with this? I suppose there are people in his position who have managed to have some groupie sex on the road without their wife finding out. Perhaps it is even possible to have one mistress on the side if she is discreet. But Tiger threw all caution to the wind. In the day of TMZ and skanks looking to get on television, he should have known that this indiscriminate sleeping around was going to get out.
I can't decide if he was stupid or arrogant. Either way, Tiger is living proof of Jesus' warning: There is nothing concealed that will not be disclosed, or hidden that will not be made known. What you have said in the dark will be heard in the daylight, and what you have whispered in the ear in the inner rooms will be proclaimed from the roofs. (Luke 12:2-3)
Friday, December 4, 2009
The Sarah Palin Phenomenon Part 2
The acceptance by the religious right to Sarah Palin is not a surprise. What is a bit surprising is the reaction of the left, especially the left-leaning news media. In short, they seem scared of her.
I really do not view her as a threat in 2012 (a post for another day), but perhaps they know more than I do. When reporting every campaign stop (=book-signing), there is always some talking head taking a shot at her record or family life or her lack of acceptance by mainstream Republicans. This is the treatment given to someone you fear.
In an incredible irony, the news media is actually giving more attention and credibility to Palin by attacking her. Her book tour is not particularly newsworthy. They could have ignored it or at least given it subdued coverage. But by taking shots at her, they just keep putting her smiling face on the TV screen again and again. It seems counterproductive to me.
Democratic party mailings have gone out with warnings about Sarah Palin in an attempt to raise money. They are trying to energize the left by trading on their fears of a Palin presidency. It reminds me of what the Republicans did with Hilary Clinton in 2006-7. She was the bogey of the right. Palin has become the bogey of the left.
Can she win? Should she win? Next time.
I really do not view her as a threat in 2012 (a post for another day), but perhaps they know more than I do. When reporting every campaign stop (=book-signing), there is always some talking head taking a shot at her record or family life or her lack of acceptance by mainstream Republicans. This is the treatment given to someone you fear.
In an incredible irony, the news media is actually giving more attention and credibility to Palin by attacking her. Her book tour is not particularly newsworthy. They could have ignored it or at least given it subdued coverage. But by taking shots at her, they just keep putting her smiling face on the TV screen again and again. It seems counterproductive to me.
Democratic party mailings have gone out with warnings about Sarah Palin in an attempt to raise money. They are trying to energize the left by trading on their fears of a Palin presidency. It reminds me of what the Republicans did with Hilary Clinton in 2006-7. She was the bogey of the right. Palin has become the bogey of the left.
Can she win? Should she win? Next time.
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
Another Celebrity Wanna-Be
Now it has come out that the woman who somehow talked her way into a White House dinner to which she had not been invited is in the running for a reality show. I guess we should not have been surprised after she bragged about it on her Facebook page. Had she not tipped off the world to her feat, the entire incident would have passed unnoticed--which must be a bit scary as far as the White House is concerned. But passing unnoticed is not what this woman--and the scores of others like her--is about.
What is it going to take to end society's fascination with reality shows? The shows have to get more daring to keep ratings. Will someone eventually die? Get pregnant from a dating show? Jon and Kate have shown that we will watch a show that helps break up a marriage. What is wrong with us?
I feel so old or at least old-fashioned. I don't watch any of these shows. This puts me out of touch with the average person I guess, but I don't care. I have no idea who wins Survivor or the Bachelor (they are still going, right?). I can't name you any of the people on the Real World. My life has enough difficulties that I am not interested in their problems--especially as most of their problems are apparently caused by their own narcissism.
Get used to seeing more like the balloon-boy's parents or the gate crashing D.C. housewife. As long as people watch these shows, there will be people vying to get on them looking for celebrity and the easy payday. And when something really bad happens, we will have to look at our own cuplability.
What is it going to take to end society's fascination with reality shows? The shows have to get more daring to keep ratings. Will someone eventually die? Get pregnant from a dating show? Jon and Kate have shown that we will watch a show that helps break up a marriage. What is wrong with us?
I feel so old or at least old-fashioned. I don't watch any of these shows. This puts me out of touch with the average person I guess, but I don't care. I have no idea who wins Survivor or the Bachelor (they are still going, right?). I can't name you any of the people on the Real World. My life has enough difficulties that I am not interested in their problems--especially as most of their problems are apparently caused by their own narcissism.
Get used to seeing more like the balloon-boy's parents or the gate crashing D.C. housewife. As long as people watch these shows, there will be people vying to get on them looking for celebrity and the easy payday. And when something really bad happens, we will have to look at our own cuplability.
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